- Market FIRE Review, Outlook, and Commentary: July 2023 – New Bull Market Carries On, Amid Generative AI Hype, Lessening Inflation, and Apparent Avoidance of Recession
Since the last Market FIRE Review, Outlook, and Commentary from March 2023, the economy and stock market have behaved largely as this site has predicted, with inflation continuing to decrease (albeit to levels still well above the Fed’s 2% target) and recession concerns continuing to abate. If anything, despite the overall downcast tone of forecasters at that time, the economy and market have proven to be even more resilient than this site expected. Yet interest rates are still expected to increase slightly, and the signs of a slowing economy remain. When combined with the lofty current valuations of the stock market, this uncertainty gives rise to the likelihood of a near-term summer pull-back, likely to be followed by a further bull run up for the remainder of the year.
- Changes to My Market FIRE Stock and Option Portfolio: April 2023
The next Bull Market may have started, albeit tenuously. The technical indicators and overall trend in inflation and interest rates justify a shift in the trajectory of the market towards the positive side. With that in mind, this piece details changes I have made to my own Market FIRE-optimized stock and options portfolio for March and April 2023, including liquidated long stock positions, added long stock positions, short puts, long calls, and changes in covered calls.
- Covered Call Options Case Study: Leveraging Volatility from Overall Sideways Trading Stock With Long Term Growth Potential – Uber Technologies (UBER), from 4/1/2022 to 4/1/2023
This case study shows the use of the covered call strategy to generate a moderate degree of premium options income to effectively reward the shareholder even as the underlying stock did not result in any significant enduring unrealized capital gains. With the high degree of volatility in either direction, Uber has been a great stock for trading covered call options. The premium generated from these covered calls has nicely enhanced the overall performance of the investment in Uber to the point where a slight unrealized loss actually amounts to a net moderately substantial gain.
- Market FIRE Review, Outlook, and Commentary: March 2023 – Bank Failures, Declining But Still Elevated Inflation, and Lower Interest Rate Hikes Expected
Since the last Market FIRE Review, Outlook, and Commentary from February 2023, market developments have led to terminal interest rate expectations to first go up before going down, as hawkish Congressional testimony by Fed Chair Powell was followed by a slightly declining February CPI reading and two regional bank failures that triggered federal intervention and fears of declining economic activity. Now is time to re-adjust one’s stock portfolio to take into account expectations of lower inflation and a mild economic slowdown.
- Options Trading Update: Fed Chair Powell Congress Testimony 3/7 and 3/8/2023
Yesterday, 3/7/2023, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell provided his semiannual testimony to the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, where he stated that higher interest rates than expected will likely be needed to defeat the persistently high inflation levels that currently pervade the economy. This means that the “terminal rate” for the federal funds rate is now expected to be in excess of 5.0%, perhaps approaching 6.0%. Although not surprising based on recent CPI, PPI, and employment data from January 2023, this frank and forthright declarative statement from the soft-spoken Fed Chairman initially jolted the stock market.
- Changes to My Market FIRE Stock and Option Portfolio: February 2023
The next Bull Market may have started, albeit tenuously. The technical indicators and overall trend in inflation and interest rates justify a shift in the trajectory of the market towards the positive side. With that in mind, this piece details changes I have made to my own Market FIRE-optimized stock and options portfolio for early 2023 through the end of February, including liquidated long stock positions, added long stock positions, short puts, long calls, and changes in covered calls.
- Market FIRE Review, Outlook, and Commentary: February 2023
Since our year-beginning 2023 Review Outlook, and Commentary, the bull run in the stock market has largely continued into early-February, with only some mild signs of a pullback by mid-month. Technical indicators and economic developments support a continuation of this recent pull-back, though not to the degree that the gains since the start of the year will be reversed. Continued upside for the first half of the year appears to be in sight. The course for the rest of the year may well depend on the continuing direction of inflation and direction of interest rates as set by the Federal Reserve and the bond market.
- Politics and Investing: Don’t Check Your Politics at the Door, but Keep It in the Background
Any investor–and particularly a Market FIRE investor who actively invests in the stock market to make a living–should always be aware of the influence of politics on the market, but he should also never allow his own political views to dictate investment decisions. However, because politics inevitably will affect judgments by many market observers, investors should always make sure to gain market news and commentary from multiple sources with differing political perspectives.
- Daily Life As Market FIRE Investor: Routine Actions to Actively Manage Your Investment Portfolio After FI
What does daily life look like for someone who lives as a Market FIRE investor? The Market FIRE investor will benefit from having a dedicated workspace available to use during regular trading hours, regularly monitoring macro-economic and stock-specific news developments, monitoring market and portfolio performance, assessing one’s personal cash position, and making appropriate stock and options trades.
- Taking Stock: Annual Recordkeeping on Portfolio Performance to Gauge Market FIRE Investing Objectives
The New Year is a time to review one’s annual investment portfolio performance. This piece discusses recordkeeping and reflections geared toward stock market investors using their portfolios to win financial independence.
- Disclosure of Stocks in Author’s Current Market FIRE Portfolio (as of 1/25/2023)
This article discloses the specific stocks held in the author’s personal stock portfolio, not as recommendations for anyone else but as examples of a Market FIRE-optimized stock portfolio in the current economic environment from my own perspective.
- Market FIRE Review, Outlook, and Commentary: January 2023
Market FIRE Review, Outlook, and Commentary for Jan. 2023 – First half-year bull-run may be ahead, as inflation lessens and immediate severe recession appears to be averted.
- Financial TV Sources for Options Trading and Covered Calls
This article discusses programming on financial news stations that discuss options trading strategies, including covered call strategies.
- Budgeting For Market FIRE
Article discusses Personal Finance Components of Stock Market FIRE investing, including determining annual expenditures, feasible monthly and annual net options premium, and portfolio rebalancing revenue for ordinary expenditures
- Covered Call Option Case Study: Arch Resources (ARCH) from 11/2021 to 11/2022
Case study illustrates author’s experience trading covered call, long call, and short put options on Arch Resources to facilitate financial independence during general upward trending bull market for coal and energy sectors but with overall Bear Market for general stocks. Case study shows timing and steps needed to preserve capital appreciation for in-the-money options through rolling up and over those call options.
- Market FIRE Commentary: December 2022
Market FIRE Commentary for Dec. 2022 – outlook after progress made in lowering inflation, but with continued recession concerns. Bearish short-term seen ahead, but poised for upside sentiment correction for New Year.
- Covered Call Option Case Study: AirBNB (ABNB) from 11/2021 to 11/2022
Case study of covered call and put trading by author for AirBNB stock illustrates measures to generate additional income to support financial independence in overall Bear Market conditions. Case study also illustrates timing for rolling up and over options to guard against underlying stock being called away pursuant to call options.
- Market FIRE Commentary: Nov. 2022
Market FIRE commentary for Nov. 2022 – Year-end rally expected based on forecasted mid-term election results, but intermediate term outlook remains bearish.
- Market FIRE Commentary: Week of 10/10/2022
Market FIRE commentary for Week of 10/10/2022 – Avalanche of economic data ahead in expected choppy stock market environment full of inflation and recession worries.
- Market FIRE Commentary: Week of 9/26/2022
Market FIRE Commentary for Week of 9;/26/2022 – Technical indicators show oversold conditions ripe for October relief rally. Time may be ripe for adding to battered long stock positions and buying back profitable covered call options.
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